Aral is Getting Taller!

This is a dystopian story: a profit-seeking government that destroyed what was then the fourth-largest lake in the world, and a fundamental resource that played a key role in the local community and life. 

This is the story of the Aral Lake in central Asia, its impact on the central Asian republics, and the lessons that it is teaching us! A story that gives mixed emotions, with shadows of sadness and rays of hope.

Today, we will review the story and the recent improvements in the status of the Aral lake, including the future threats that are still menacing this once immense lake!

Recent history of the Aral Lake

I say some context is a good start! 

The Aral Lake is located in Asia, split by the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and is an oceanic lake, which, among other things, means that its water is salty. The lake has two major tributary rivers, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, which cross several other central asian countries. Historically, the lake played a big role in the surrounding community, both culturally and economically, as a source for irrigation and fishing. 

Its demise started in the 40s when the USSR of Stalin started a “nature conversion programme” that would dedicate a large part of the waters of the lake to the cultivation of cotton. 

After this, in the 50s, a canal was built to divert water from the Amu Darya to Asgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan then part of the USSR. 

These two actions affected the water influx of the lake so much that already in the 70s it had shrunk to the point of making the water salinity spike, making the water unlivable for the fauna. 

In the 80s, the water level kept shrinking to the point that the lake, as in a desperate call for survival, split into two. At this point, so much water was used for agriculture that the two tributary rivers were dry for most of the year. The situation has not changed since.
Today, the lake is still split into multiple basins, with 90% of its surface dried and leaving a dry and salty desert, fostering local desertification and the formation of sand and salt storms (Nakamura et al., 2025). 

A breach of hope!

Spoiler! 

Today, the Aral Lake is growing, the saltiness level has decreased, and fish have started populating the waters again, revitalizing a new booming fishing industry!

All around the northern Kazakhstan area, new technologies and a modernization of the irrigation systems have allowed for a more efficient use of the Syr Darya water, making it possible to pour more water into the lake. 

These are just some of the improvements that the Kazakh programme for the rehabilitation of the North Aral Sea has generated. The project originally focuses on three areas: increasing the volumes and efficiency of water accumulation in the North Aral Sea, improving the management of water resources, fishery and eco-tourism development, and enhancing the region’s ecological situation.

This progress was not easily achieved, as 2024 was only the first time in 5 years that Kazakhstan was able to meet the amount of water for the reconstitution of the lake. In 2024, a total of 2.6 billion cubic meters of water were directed to the lake, setting the stage for the beginning of the second phase of the project. 

This second phase sees the construction of the Kokaral Dam, which will separate the north and south sections of the lake. 

This can be controversial as it will mark a permanent separation between the north and the south parts of the lake, but at the same time, it will allow for better conservation and reinvigoration of the northern part. By building this dam, the lake will reach a depth of 44 meters and allow the northern part of the lake to spread to a total surface of 3913 km2! 

Not bad right!? 

However, these improvements concern only the northern part of the lake, the one situated in Kazakhstan, meaning that the Uzbek part is still lagging. 

The Aral Lake still faces many challenges ahead, and it all starts with the geopolitical implications of its basin (The Times of Central Asia, 2025). 

Ahead, it is not all green, nor blue!

Even though cooperation among the Stans over the lake bonification was already agreed at the birth of many of these nations in 1993, progress has always been slow in real terms. The main problem is that the tributary rivers supply water to 6 different countries, for which these rivers are the main water supply source. The upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) in particular have been building dams and canals for their energy needs, while downstream countries, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, are always hungrier for water to feed their large cotton industry.
This is the perfect example of the “tragedy of the commons”, where the solution is an unagreeable cooperation. Newspapers call it a ticking bomb as tensions are growing in this region over the water usage. Countries like China and Russia also play their part in it as they have heavily invested in this region. 

This situation risks the escalation and shows how vital water can be for the survival of a country's well-being (The Times of Central Asia, 2025)

To conclude

Writing this article gave me mixed feelings, on a side we see that the tragic story of the Lake Aral is finally showing concrete improvements, on the other though we can still see that lack of cooperation and the national interests of every country step in exacerbating the situation and endangering what has so far been attained with so much effort. 

I like to see this positively, and wish that the progress that the Kazakh programme for the bonification of the north Aral sea can inspire everyone, showing that with the proper effort and dedication, the depletion of our environment can be fought, and that this ultimately benefits all of us!

Written by volunteer Riccardo Antoniolli

References

Nakamura, T., Maruyama, A., & Masuda, S. (2025, 4 8). Kazakhstan residents’ awareness regarding revival of the Aral Sea and its economy. Discover Sustainability.

The times of Central Asia. (2025, 4 30). Opinion – Central Asia’s Looming Water Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb. The Times of Central Asia. https://timesca.com/central-asias-looming-water-crisis-a-ticking-time-bomb/

The Times of Central Asia. (2025, 5 19). Kazakhstan and World Bank Launch Second Phase to Revive Northern Aral Sea. The times of Central Asia, 1 - 3.